Wednesday, February 24, 2010

30 Team Marathon: Toronto Blue Jays

As we head towards Spring Training, it's time to check out where all 30 teams in Major League Baseball are headed as we enter the 2010 season. In this fifth installment we will analyze the Toronto Blue Jays.

-Toronto Blue Jays (2009 W/L: 75-86, 798 RS, 771 RA)

Key Additions: SS Alex Gonzalez, C John Buck, SP/RP Brandon Morrow, SP Kyle Drabek

Key Losses: SP Roy Halladay, 2B Marco Scutaro, 1B Kevin Millar, C Rod Barajas

Overview: The 2000s weren’t quite as harsh to the Toronto Blue Jays as they were to the Orioles, they mustered a second place finish in the AL East in 2006 and they managed three 85+ win seasons in the decade. Unfortunately for the Jays, they don’t play baseball in the NL Central or NL West. Jays fans will have to remain patient with this team, because their run of 15 straight seasons should continue for at least the next 3-5 years. Former general manager JP Riccardi’s five year plan never came to fruition and ultimately culminated in his dismissal and the trade of franchise icon Roy Halladay. In return for Halladay, new GM Alex Anthopolous received starting pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis D'Arnaud and infielder Brett Wallace. Regardless of how they pan out, you’d have to say that Anthopolous’ rebuilding plan is already better than Riccardi’s, whose tenure saw big money contracts being handed to Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and the now departed Alex Rios and B.J. Ryan.

Infield: The Jays will struggle mightily to score runs this season. Their already weak hitting infield got only weaker with the departure of Barajas, who despite being an overall embarrassing player when forced into an everyday role, was a 15-20 home run guy when ran out there. He’s replaced by Buck who, let’s just say is more known for his defense than offense. Meanwhile the spunky Scutaro and his above average bat at shortstop are replaced by Alex Gonzalez and his below average bat. Lyle Overbay remains at first base, where he remains terribly overpaid (he will make about $8 million this season) for his production. Despite playing at a position where power is the norm, Overbay has slugged over .500 just once in his career and fans shouldn’t expect anything to change this year. The mediocrity train continues at third, where Edwin Encarnacion also provides a below average bat at a prime offensive position. The lone bright spot lies at second base, where Aaron Hill broke out with a 36 homer, 108 RBI season in 2009.

Outfield: The patchwork lineup continues in the outfield where Jose Bautista mans left field. The Jays’ other franchise icon (for more dubious reasons) remains in centerfield to continue his torture of fans and serve as a reminder of the Riccardi era. To say Vernon Wells has been a bitter disappointment since signing a seven-year, $126 million contract in 2007 would be a massive understatement. His every failure at the plate (and there’s a lot of those) is met with a chorus of boos in Toronto and right now it’s hard to project him to turn things around at this point. 22 year old Travis Snider showed some promise in limited time last season and in 2008. While his .241 batting average probably didn’t excite any old time fans, he has shown patience at the plate and impressive power in 314 big league at-bats.

Designated Hitter: The Jays other bright spot last season came in the form of Adam Lind’s bat. Lind broke out at the age of 27, batting .305/.370/.932 with 35 homers and 114 RBI while providing the Jays a solid 3-4 punch to go along with Hill.

Starting Pitching: Welcome to the Jays’ rotation after Halladay, its filled with more question marks than the Riddler’s costume. It’s difficult to project a rotation filled with youngsters and players returning from serious arm surgeries prior to the completion of Spring Training. Right now, the only sure thing is Ricky Romero who went 13-9 with a 4.30 ERA in 29 starts last season. From there, Brandon Morrow will be given an opportunity to compete for a starting job while Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum will both make a case for themselves after coming off shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery respectively. Other youngsters Marc Rzepcynski and Brett Cecil will also complete for a spot in the rotation. How will things shakeout? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Middle Relief: The Jays’ bullpen may be the only somewhat solid area of the team entering the spring. They have a solid group of arms in Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Scott Downs and closer Jason Fraser. However, their effectiveness likely will take a hit this season with the departure of Halladay’s typical 200+ inning season. The combination of losing an ace and innings eater like Hallday, plus a rotation filled with young arms will result in a massive amount of innings falling on the arms of the bullpen. B.J. Ryan, while no longer on the team, will continue to haunt the team for one more season as the team still owes him $10 million for this season.

Projection: The Yankees and Sox are a mix of veterans in or just leaving their prime with some young players ready to contribute, the Rays are a mix of young players entering their prime along with some veterans who can still contribute and the Orioles are a mix of young players a year or two away from their prime with veterans who can still contribute. Meanwhile, the Jays are a team filled with unproven young players, a rotation filled with question marks and the few veterans they do have are terribly overpaid and are crippling the team’s finances. We all know how this story will end.

2010 Toronto Blue Jays: 60-102, 5th Place AL East.

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