Friday, February 5, 2010

30 Team Marathon: Boston Red Sox

As we head towards Spring Training, it's time to check out where all 30 teams in Major League Baseball are headed as we enter the 2010 season. In this second installment we will analyze the Boston Red Sox.

- Boston Red Sox: (2009 W/L: 95-67, 872 Runs Scored, 736 Runs Allowed)

Key Additions: SS Marco Scutaro, SP John Lackey, OF Mike Cameron, 3B Adrian Beltre
Key Departures: 1B Casey Kotchman

Starting Pitching: The Red Sox enter 2010 much like they did in 2009, with depth in their rotation. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield are the returning faces while free agent signee John Lackey has also joined the fray. It looks incredibly solid on paper, but like the Sox discovered in 2009, that means nothing. The big issues for the Sox will be whether Beckett puts up a contract year type season, or if he continues to be the typically inconsistent regular season starter that he usually is. Lester has emerged as a legitimate superstar pitcher and would be the on paper ace on nearly any team in baseball. The Red Sox biggest acquisition, Lackey, is a proven commodity and his workhorse mentality will be welcomed in Fenway. Bucholz suffered the typical ups and downs of any young starting pitcher. The biggest question for the Sox, and perhaps the difference between competing for the AL East crown versus another wild card berth, is Dice-K. After winning 18 games and posting a sub 3.00 ERA in 2008, Dice-K dealt with ineffectiveness and injury in 2009, winning just four games with a 5.76 ERA. A return to form for Dice-K would give the Red Sox the pitching they need to compete with the Yankees. An injury or hiccup in camp from Bucholz, or Dice-K would likely result in Wakefield stepping into the rotation.

Bullpen: The usual suspects are back for another campaign in Boston. Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez will all be there for middle relief duty once again. Daniel Bard emerged as an effective setup man in 2009, posting a terrific 11.5 SO/9. Bard may just be the closer of the future as the relationship between the Sox and closer Jonathan Papelbon continues to appear to be strained. Papelbon claims to be content with the lack of commitment from the front office while cashing in on large one year deals while avoiding arbitration. Still, after the way Papelbon flamed out in 2009 and the fact that he continues to cause issues for the team with his comments to the media, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Sox begin to shop Papelbon during the course of the season. For as long as he remains in Boston however, Papelbon is one of the top closers in the game and for now, is the least of the Red Sox issues.

Infield: If you notice the “Key Departures” section, there really weren’t any significant departures for the Red Sox this offseason…much to the chagrin of GM Theo Epstein. Epstein was determined to trade 3B Mike Lowell, his degenerative hip and declining range during the winter but ultimately an injured thumb prevented any deal from going through. It appeared at one point that Lowell was headed to Texas, but after the Rangers discovered a 95-percent tear in his radial collateral ligament in his right thumb, the deal died. So for now, Lowell is a $12 million backup to newly acquired Adrian Beltre. Beltre’s numbers at the plate will always be disappointing for a player with his amount of talent, but defense at third is spectacular and he will no doubt save a bunch of runs for Sox pitchers over the course of the season. Another new face is SS Marco Scutaro. Scutaro played the past two seasons in Toronto and his solid bat and glove will provide stability in a position that has been nothing but a headache since Epstein decided to let Orlando Cabrera walk away. Finally, the two rocks in the Red Sox lineup, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and first baseman Kevin Youkilis round out the infield and should continue to produce at elite levels.

Outfield: The Sox worked to negotiate a return for LF Jason Bay but ultimately deemed his price too high. They instead chose to shore up their outfield defense by signing Mike Cameron. Despite his age, 37, Cameron remains one of the top defensive centerfielders in baseball and also will provide some pop at the bottom of the order, albeit at the cost of about 150 strikeouts. His arrival means that the defensively challenged Jacoby Ellsbury can slide over to left field. While Ellsbury’s defense was sometimes disappointing, he continued to produce at the plate and on the base paths, batting .301 to go along with 70 SBs. Over in right, J.D. Drew continued to produce when he was healthy. Expect the same story for Drew in 2010.

Catcher: The Red Sox brought in Victor Martinez to spark a sagging offense at the trade deadline in 2009 and he didn’t disappoint, hitting at a .336/.405/.912 clip during 56 games with Boston. Martinez will split time at catcher, DH and first base, but is officially listed as catcher despite his defensive struggles. Sox icon and team captain Jason Varitek will make $3 million this season to back-up Martinez, making him the highest paid backup catcher in baseball. Varitek finally completely fell off the ledge offensively and defensively in 2009, posting a pathetic .702 OPS while regularly looking lost behind the plate. However, his value lies in his leadership, illustrated by the big C on his uniform.

Designated Hitter: It will be interesting to see how the Sox handle David Ortiz’s at-bats this season should he get off to another sluggish start. While his awful start in 09 (he didn’t hit a homer until May 20th) was masked by Jason Bay’s hot start, Bay isn’t around to provide the lineup any insurance this time around.

Players to Watch: Despite a disappointing 09 minor league campaign, 1B Lars Anderson remains atop the Red Sox prospects list. However, with a logjam in the DH/1B department in the majors, it may be tough for Anderson to make an impact unless injury strikes the big club.

Outlook for 2010: Despite an aging lineup, you can never count the Red Sox out. They may not have the talent to outpace the Yankees or maybe even the Rays this season in the AL East, but another Wild Card berth is hardly out of the question. Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox attention is directed more towards the Rays this year than the Yankees.

Prediction: 91-71, Second Place, AL East

2 comments:

  1. 91 wins, ey? I guess they'll get there, but this team really doesn't belong in the playoffs again. If they don't make that move for Adrian Gonzalez I can't see them going far in the playoffs, though as of right now the AL doesn't look too tough. Not for Boston at least.

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  2. yea i see 91 wins, they'll still be one of the better teams in baseball but theo really had to sell out on his offensive beliefs this offseason after they didn't resign bay and the talks with the padres went nowhere. he decided to buildup the defense but its going to come at the cost of severely downgrading the lineup. beltre and cameron are both low OBP guys, and cameron strikes out a ton. i think beltre will benefit from fenway, as all hitters do, but he's not going to suddenly change his hitting philosophy and work out more walks. the sox lineup at its best is filled with disciplined hitters, and now there are goin to be some holes in the lineup in that regard.

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