As we head towards Spring Training, it's time to check out where all 30 teams in Major League Baseball are headed as we enter the 2010 season. In this third installment we will analyze the Tampa Bay Rays.
-Tampa Bay Rays (2009 W/L: 84-78, 803 RS, 754 RA)
Key Additions: RP Rafael Soriano, C Kelly Shoppach
Key Departures: 2B Akinori Iwamura
Starting Pitching: Meet the 2010 Rays’ starting rotation, same as the 2009 Rays’ rotation. The difference? Everyone is a year older, and while that is something that makes fans of most teams shudder, the Rays’ young pitchers can afford another year of wisdom and development. James Shields, Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann (all 28 years old or younger), combined to make 95 starts and throw over 600 innings in 2009 and a repeat performance by those three alone would make the Rays a force to deal with in the AL East. But the Rays also could see huge production from lefty David Price and righthander Wade Davis. Price, a hero out of the bullpen for the Rays during their 2008 run towards the World Series, re-debuted in mid-May as a full-time Major League starter. Price, much like Joba Chamberlain, showed brilliance on the mound at times while also mixing in bouts of wildness and ineffectiveness. With nearly a full season of pitching at the major league level under his belt, Price easily could win 15 plus games this season and dominate opposing batters with his electric slider. Davis was a September call-up and instantly impressed. In his debut against the Detroit Tigers, he tossed seven innings of one run ball, striking out nine and walking just one batter. His follow-up performance against the Red Sox wasn’t quite as pretty (8IP, 8ER, 4BB), but Davis had a strong showing the rest of the way. Davis could end up starting the season in Triple A, much like Price did last season. Starting the season there would allow him to get regular work (fifth starters not needed in April for the most part) and serve as a confidence booster as he gets ready for the grind of a 20+ starts in the majors. Davis has been projected to have number one or two type stuff with his power fastball complimented by a 11-5 curve and hard, tight slider. The Rays’ starters could give nightmares to lineups throughout baseball.
Bullpen: After experimenting with veterans Jason Isringhausen and Troy Percivel over the course of the past two seasons, the Rays will hope that Rafael Soriano can provide some stability to the back of their bullpen. Soriano saved 27 games for the Braves last season with a 2.97 ERA while striking 102 batters in just 75.2 innings. Expect his numbers to suffer as he makes the adjustment to the AL East. He will still be a welcome sight to a team that had saves recorded by nine different pitchers last season, not a good recipe for any team hoping to compete. Soriano’s arrival will allow J.P. Howell to slide into the setup role, giving the Rays a formidable duo in the eighth and ninth innings.
Infield: The Rays’ infield will basically be the same as it was on the final day of the 2009 season save for the trade of Akinori Iwamura who was involved in the Rafael Soriano trade. Taking his place will be Ben Zobrist who performed exceptionally in the lineup when Iwamura went down with an injury last season. Zobrist had a breakout season, batting at a .297/.405/.948 clip with 27 home runs and 91 RBI, making Iwamura expendable. His double play partner Jason Bartlett also had a career season, hitting 14 homers and knocking in 66 RBI. Should the veteran Bartlett falter, 23 year old Reid Brignac will be given the chance to take the job. The anchors of the infield however, lie as one would expect, at the corners. Third baseman Evan Longoria proved that his stellar debut in 2008 was no fluke and barring any injuries, a 40 homer/130 RBI season is not out of the question this year. Meanwhile, first baseman Carlos Pena continued to haunt the Yankees and Red Sox, both of whom had Pena within their system in 2006. Pena has hit 116 home runs since joining the Rays at the start of 2007, including 39 last season despite an injury that kept him out of the last three weeks of the season. However, Pena’s low average and high strikeout rate keep him out of the top tier of first basemen in the game.
Outfield: The Rays’ outfield took a hit in 2009 as centerfielder B.J. Upton continued to regress from his breakout 2007 season. Upton hit just .241 and his OBP was a paltry .313 in 09 and his winter was topped off losing his arbitration case to the Rays. It will be interesting to see how the talented 25 year old bounces back. Meanwhile franchise icon, leftfielder Carl Crawford, may be entering his final season with the team as enters the last season of his contract. The lefty was dynamic as ever last season, swiping 60 bases and posting a career high OBP of .364. Should the Rays falter before July 31st, expect to hear Crawford and the words “Red Sox” or “Yankees” connected so often that you will want to go deaf. The team will enter camp with an open competition in rightfield, with veteran Gabe Kapler looking to fend over 25 year old Matt Joyce and 26 year old Fernando Perez. Joyce was expected to be the full-time rightfielder last season, but an injury forced him out of all but 11 games last season.
Catcher: Youngster Dioner Navarro took a dramatic step backwards in 2009, as he watched his .OPS fall from a respectable .757 in 2008 to an embarrassing .583 last season. Still his isolated power and discipline numbers remained similar, which should give the Rays hope that last year was an outlier, a “career worst” season. This is further illustrated in his .313 BAbip (batting average on balls in play) in 2008 and .231 BAbip in 2009, so you can expect his numbers to balance out to somewhere in between this season. Navarro will compete with veteran Kelly Shoppach, who also struggled last season with the Cleveland Indians, hitting a career low .214. However, Shoppach’s power potential could give him the edge once camp breaks.
Designated Hitter: The Rays built their team through drafts and trades, working around their small payroll to construct a team that can compete with the triple digit payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox. However, even small market teams make a few moves in free agency and last season that move was DH Pat Burrell. Burrell was infamous for making Philly fans suffer through his inconsistencies, and his reputation continued in Tampa Bay last season after signing a two year deal for $16 million. Burrell hit just 14 homers and drove in 64 runs to go along with a .221 average and .315 OBP. All career lows. The Rays were hopeful that they could dump his contract on someone else this offseason, but that never came to fruition. Perhaps after a year of adjusting to American League pitching, Burrell can bounce back, but I’d doubt there are any Rays fans holding their breath.
Players to Watch: As mentioned earlier, Wade Davis could go from fifth starter to staff ace by the end of the season. If BJ Upton struggles or if Crawford is traded, might we also see an appearance from outfield prospect Desmond Jennings? Jennings excelled after earning a promotion to AAA last season and is very close to the majors. The question will be when the Rays want to his major league service time clock to begin to tick.
Outlook for 2010: The Rays are still a young team and young teams are always going to be very inconsistent. Their closer is coming over from the National League and might find himself shell shocked by the end of April by AL offenses. Carl Crawford may become distracted by constant trade rumors should the Rays stumble out of the gate. Can Upton rebound after a disappointing 2009? Was Zobrist’s 2009 season a fluke? The answers to those questions will be interesting to watch for. It is also important to note that the only way that the Rays will likely be active at the trade deadline is if they are out of contention as teams make calls for Crawford. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, there’s little to no chance that they will be able to add significant players through a trade due to their payroll constrictions.
Prediction: 89-73, Third Place, AL East
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This may be it for the Rays. If they don't get back to the playoffs this year they're probably going to have to start rebuilding. Sure their farm is always going to be good, but that's not how you win if you're a small market team.
ReplyDeleteThe Rays are living on borrowed time much like the A's were in the beginning of the decade and the Padres were in the middle of the decade. Sure the Rays have a better farm than those two teams but they also don't have the brilliant GM's those two teams had/have.
In that division, with the Red Sox really looking like a team filled with holes this year, this may be the Rays best shot to go back to the playoffs in the next 3 to 4 years.
Then again who thought 2 years ago the Rays would even win 80 games?